So, we got our first serious selloff on the price rally that commenced on Feb 27 and carried $365 (18%) in gold and $6.20 (27%) in silver through Friday (on a closing basis).  The selloff over the past few days into the price lows of yesterday has amounted to more than $100 in gold and $2 in silver, quite substantial by any measure. While there are a lot of things one could say about the selloff, like it started and for the most part occurred in the always illiquid trading session starting Sunday evening (typically when the collusive COMEX commercial vermin come out to play) and with no real news to explain it; it could hardly be called unusual in any real regard. That’s because we’ve seen too many of these same selloffs over the years and decades to be truly shocked by this one. While it’s way too soon…

Gold prices closed higher for the week by $46 (2%) and at new all-time weekly closing highs, while silver tacked on 72 cents (2.6%) to close at what looks like 11-year highs. As a result of silver’s slight relative outperformance, the silver/gold price ratio tightened in by a half a point to 83.8 to 1. That the relative value of silver is still so darn cheap compared to gold, now on a pronounced upswing in prices, is unprecedented and contrary to easily-observed historical patterns. A reversion to the mean would suggest outstanding relative and historic price gains ahead for silver, but, to my mind, even that is secondary to the readily observed deepening physical shortage in silver – still the most powerful price force known to commodities. It’s just a question of how long before the COMEX price manipulation ends, although there are growing signs that the manipulative commercial shorts…

I have tried to stick to the facts that can be substantiated when it comes to the developing financial circumstances as a result of the recent sharp price gains in gold and silver. First and foremost, among those financial results have been the easy-to-calculate total gains and losses to those holding net long and short positions in COMEX gold and silver futures contracts. The formula for determining these total gains and losses is straightforward.  Since it is relatively easy to get the net long and short positions on futures contracts (simply subtract total spread positions from total open interest), the only other calculation is to then multiply the net long and short position (which have to be the same by derivatives definition) by the change in price over any stipulated time period. I have chosen the gold and silver price change from Feb 27 to the present, which as of…

On a weekly closing basis, the price performance in gold and silver looked fine, as gold closed up by $15 (0.6%) and yet another all-time weekly price high, while silver ended 50 cents (1.8%) higher to close at three-year highs.  As a result, the silver/gold price ratio tightened in by three full points to 84.3 to 1, the best relative showing silver has had in 2024. Before getting into some new observations about what may have driven gold and silver prices higher over the past six reporting weeks and the new COT report, first a few words on yesterday’s unusual trading. While this week’s price results will remain established, it’s hard to overlook the tremendous price volatility that occurred yesterday, when both gold and silver established sharp new price highs, only to fall precipitously by the close of trading, with gold down by about $100 and with silver down by…

In trying to objectively evaluate whether silver prices will undergo a sharp selloff or a price explosion (or both), following the sharp rally of recent weeks, let me attempt to include the factors on either side of the equation, starting with those factors pointing to a selloff. First, there is the strong record of what has transpired in the past whenever we have rallied sharply, achieving “over-bought” technical indicators and strong deterioration in the market structure on the COMEX (big managed money buying and commercial selling). Over the past decades, a sharp price selloff has been the usual result when such conditions have existed. It is a strong pattern hard to argue against. In fact, it encompasses the “wash, rinse, repeat process” a remarkably large number of observers have come to recognize. As such, this set up cannot be dismissed out of hand. At the same time, however, there are…

It was yet another standout week for gold and silver price performance, as gold rocketed higher by $91 (4%) to fresh all-time highs, while silver jumped by $2.40 (9.6%) to near three-year highs. As a result of silver’s relative outperformance, the silver/gold price ratio tightened in by more than 3.5 full points to 85.25 to 1. While the journey to a much lower price ratio is unknown on a short-term basis, it seems dead solid certain that the silver/gold price ratio will end up tens of points lower than it is currently. Aside from the outstanding price performance, highlights for the week included a continued lack of net physical deposits into the world gold ETFs, despite the strong price action, but with super-strong deposits into the silver ETFs (as expected), along with what I would interpret as bullish readings in the yesterday’s new Commitments of Traders (COT) report, despite overall…